Wintertime precipitation is projected to increase by +0.1 to +1.2 inches (+3% to +35%) by the mid-21st century. The average projection among the climate models is a 20% increase in wintertime precipitation across northern Wisconsin. What is the potential impact of this change to water?
CLUE: The projected change in winter precipitation may not seem significant, but pair this map showing projected change in winter temperatures. What do these projections suggest?
Less Snow, More RainWarmer atmosphere means that water vapor that would have fallen as snow during winter months may precipitate as rain. Climate projections suggest that Wisconsin’s warming will be statewide and the greatest increases during the winter months. , The greatest winter warm-up is projected across northwest Wisconsin, with 8-8.5°F average temperature increase.
When temperatures are above freezing (32°F), precipitation falls as rain. This means that while more precipitation expected in winter, but it will come as rain or a wintery mix, rather than as snow. Snowfall, snow depth, and the extent of snow across the state are expected to decrease.
What does this mean for communities that rely on winter recreation or winter logging businesses that requires frozen roads for jobs and income? Snow also provides important habitat can affect the sustainability of plants and animals that rely on snow, such as the American Marten. Warmer winter temperatures mean less ice cover on lakes. This increases winter evaporation and can lower lake levels and affect fish spawning areas. Snow is both a source of moisture and a thermal insulator protecting plant’s root systems during winter months.