<Ojibwe Lifeway: Maple Sugaring and Birch Bark Harvesting (“ziigwan”-spring)

INVESTIGATE THE SCIENCE

A warming climate means changes for forests in Wisconsin and the Ceded territories are lands transferred from tribes to the federal covernment by treaty. Ceded Territory of the Lake Superior OjibweClimate change will affect tree beings (species) like paper birch that are living at the southern limit of their range.Changes in the tree beings that make up a forest can also affect the sustainability of some wildlife species. Forests provide a wide range of environmental, economic, and social benefits.Warming climate will affect the composition of the trees beings that make up forests. This mean changes for Northern Wisconsin’s and the Ceded Territories most important economic sectors: logging, recreation, and agriculture.Now that you have learned about the importance of the paper birch and sugar maple to the Ojibwe and explored place-based evidence of how climate change is affecting the region's forests, it is time investigate what academic climate research is telling us about how the climate is changing. Use the Climate Change Toolkit to investigate the science! Use the Investigate the Science Activity Guide to focus your explorations.

CLIMATE CHANGE TOOLKIT

Browse this toolkit to find maps showing historic and projected climate trends for key environment variables affecting the sustainability of sugar maple and paper birch. Choose the geographical area you are interested in investigating and explore the climate change maps and tools.
Wisconsin

Wisconsin’s Climate Change Historic Trends and Future Projections

Wisconsin’s Climate Change Historic Trends and Future Projections
Wisconsin’s Climate Change Historic Trends and Future Projections

How has Wisconsin’s climate changed in the past?

CLUE:

 

Temperature (map on left). From 1950-2024, the average annual temperature in Wisconsin warmed between  3-4°F.  Winter temperatures have risen most significantly. Summer and autumn temperatures in Wisconsin have changed the least.

 

Precipitation (map on right).  Precipitation patterns have also changed. Wisconsin has become wetter – average precipitation has increased 17 percent (about 5 inches) since 1950. Most of the increase has been concentrated in southern and western Wisconsin. With warming winter temperatures, more winter precipitation is expected to fall as rain, rather than snow.

 

Explore more historic Wisconsin climate trends and seasonal trends here

 


What’s the Future for Wisconsin’s climate?

What’s the Future for Wisconsin’s climate?
What’s the Future for Wisconsin’s climate?

Projected change in Wisconsin's temperatures by mid-century (left map) and projected temperature change by 2090 (right map) under the A1B climate scenario. 

 

The Wisconsin "Statistical Downscaling Tool" allows you to investigate climate impacts under different possible climate futures called "scenarios." Explore how specific climate variables such as temperature and precipitation, are projected to change under different climate futures,  and for different seasons, and time periods.

 

A2 Scenario- This model is characterized by a future with intensive fossil fuel use and high carbon emissions, higher than today’s rate.

 

A1B Scenario- This model uses a middle level rate of fossil fuel use where future carbon emissions remain similar to what we are experiencing today. This scenario is similar to the RCP 4.5 scenario.

 

B1 Scenario- This model is characterized by a future with lower fossil fuel use and lower carbon emissions than today’s rates.

 

How could future climate change affect Wisconsin’s environment, economies, and people?


CLUE: Analyze potential climate change impacts under each of these scenarios on the key environmental variables and habitat conditions that are critical to the sustainability of plants, animals that support cultural and economic practices important to our communities.


Ceded Territory of the lake superior ojibwe

INVESTIGATE CEDED TERRITORY CLIMATE CHANGE

The maps in this section were created by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
Open this section of the Climate Change Toolkit to discover how climate may be changing within the Ceded territories are lands transferred from tribes to the federal covernment by treaty.Ceded Territory of the Lake Superior Ojibwe and Upper Great Lakes.

Investigate maps that show historic climate trends that have been already been documented. Discover how climate variables like temperature and precipitation are projected to change. All climate projection maps are based on the A1B scenario which projects a climate future where the rate of fossil fuel use and carbon emissions remain similar to what we are experiencing today.

By Treaty with the US government, the Ojibwe people retain rights to hunt, fish, and gather in the Ceded Territory. Sustainability of plant and animals are important to maintaining Treaty Rights and Ojibwe cultural practices.

How could climate change affect the sustainability of species that are essential to supporting Treaty Rights and Ojibwe cultural practices? How could these changes in climate affect the cultural practices you enjoy, or people and economies?

TIP: Tip on using NASA Climate Maps
Each NASA climate map uses a different range of variables and colors to show the range of change. Read each map legend carefully to understand the range of variables that each color represents.

NASA historic climate maps and climate project maps cover slightly different time periods than other maps in the toolkit. NASA maps are based on the A2 climate scenario which projects a moderate rate of C02 increase.

HISTORIC CHANGE IN ANNUAL MEAN DAILY TEMPERATURE

PROJECTED CHANGES IN MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERTURE AVERAGE (TAVG)

Average annual mean temperatures across the Ceded Territory are expected to increase between 3-4° F by 2045. Warming is expected throughout the region, but the greatest increase in northern Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Look at the seasonal maps. Across the region, the warming is expected across all seasons, but is projected to be most significant during summer, fall and winter seasons.

Warmer winters mean more precipitation falling as rain or ice rather than snow, and less ice cover on lakes.

How would warming temperatures affect the sustainability of species and cultural activities that depend on cool temperate summers and cold snowy winters?

HISTORIC CHANGE IN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (1980-2010)

HISTORIC CHANGE IN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION

Recorded trends in precipitation (falling as rain and snow) varied greatly across the Ceded Territory. The northern and western parts of the region tended to be drier, with some counties experiencing a decrease of as much as 6.5-inches in annual precipitation during this period.

Other counties in the south and east received as much as 8- inches more annual precipitation over the same time. Increased precipitation can saturate soils leading to flooding.

Drought is closely tied to precipitation and temperature. Compare this map with the Historic Annual Temperature seasonal maps. Which areas experienced higher temperatures and lower precipitation leading to drought conditions?

CEDED TERRITORY CLIMATE CHANGE TIME TRAVELER

What’s the Ceded Territory’s Climate Future?
Climate Change Projections (1995-2045)

PROJECTED CHANGES IN MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERTURE AVERAGE (TAVG)

Average annual mean temperatures across the Ceded Territory are expected to increase between 3-4° F by 2045. Warming is expected throughout the region, but the greatest increase in northern Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Look at the seasonal maps. Across the region, the warming is expected across all seasons, but is projected to be most significant during summer, fall and winter seasons.

Warmer winters mean more precipitation falling as rain or ice rather than snow, and less ice cover on lakes.

How would warming temperatures affect the sustainability of species and cultural activities that depend on cool temperate summers and cold snowy winters?
PROJECTED CHANGE IN FREQUENCY OF VERY HOT DAYS

By 2045, the frequency of very hot days above 90° F is expected to increase across the region. The greatest change is projected in northwest Wisconsin and northern Minnesota where the frequency of very hot days may increase by 13 days.

Temperature is closely tied to drought. High temperatures causes stress on plants, animals, and people.
PROJECTED CHANGE IN FREQUENCY OF VERY COLD DAYS

Winter is expected to be warmer by mid-century with the frequency of very cold days (below 0° F) decreasing throughout the Ceded Territory. The greatest decrease is projected to occur in northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota where the frequency of very cold days is expected to decrease by 9 to 11 days.

Cold days are needed for many cultural activities including maple syrup production, ice fishing, snowmobiling, and skiing. The change in the frequency of cold days is projected to be less of an impact in the eastern section of the Ceded Territory.
United States
How could these changes in climate impact the sustainability of sugar maple, paper birch, and other tree species?

Climate Variables Affecting the Sustainability of Sugar Maple and Paper Birch
(these trends are based on the A1B Scenario)

Temperature

Temperature
Temperature

Overall, Wisconsin is expected to warm by 3°F, with more warming in the winter projected to be + 5°F statewide by the middle of this century. What is the potential impact of these changes on sugar maple and paper birch?

CLUE:

 

Shorter, warmer winters can negatively affect the flow of maple sap, which is boiled down to make syrup. Sap flow is controlled by alternating freezing and thawing cycles in the late winter. The best conditions for sugaring are cool nights, just below freezing, and fairly warm days, in the upper 40s °F. This temperature change causes shifts in pressure outside the tree that send sap flowing throughout the tree. When a small hole is tapped into the tree, some of that sap will flow out and can be collected to make maple syrup.

 

Paper birch is a northern species adapted to cold climates. It is seldom found growing naturally where average July temperatures exceed 70° F.  Paper birch is predicted decline and may even disappear from Wisconsin forests by the end of the century. 



Longer Growing Season

Longer Growing Season

Plant scientists have documented a northward shift in Wisconsin’s A geographically defined area in which a specific category of plant life is capable of growing, as defined by climatic conditions. growing zones. The growing season has become between 1-3 weeks longer in the central and northern portions of Wisconsin. What is the potential impact of these changes on sugar maple and paper birch?

CLUE:

 

Longer growing periods could mean greater growth and productivity—as long as there is enough moisture and nutrients. As trees will need more moisture from the soil, over a longer growing period caused by warmer temperatures, the amount of water they use through The loss of water from the soil both by evaporation and by transpiration which the loss of water from the plants through their leaves into the atmosphere evapotranspiration will increase. This will reduce the amount of moisture available in the soil which would limit growth or possibly cause plant die off if there is not enough rain. A longer growing season will benefit some tree species and encourage new tree establish themselves here. Other trees not adapted to higher temperatures and less soil moisture will decline or may be lost. The subarctic, evergreen forest dominated by coniferous trees such as spruce, fir, and pine. Boreal species, like paper birch, may not be able to sustainable in Wisconsin under these conditions.


Changing Precipitation

Changing Precipitation

Most climate models project that for most of Wisconsin, the average annual precipitation will increase by 5% by mid-century. Wisconsin is projected to experience increases in winter and spring precipitation, but a trend toward less rain in summer. What is the potential impact of these changes on sugar maple and paper birch?

CLUE:

 

The decrease in summer rain, combined with the added amount of The loss of water from the soil both by evaporation and by transpiration which the loss of water from the plants through their leaves into the atmosphere> evapotranspiration by plant caused by increased temperatures, will decrease soil moisture later in the growing season. Sugar maple, which prefers mesic sites, may be stressed. The loss of soil moisture in late summer could stress paper birch growing on drier sites, making them more susceptible to insect infestations from pests such as the bronze birch borer and die back. Containing a moderate, balanced supply of moisture </span><span class="term">mesic</span></span> sites, may be stressed. The loss of soil moisture in late summer could stress Paper Birch growing on drier sites, making them more susceptible to insect infestations from pests such as the bronze birch borer and die back.</body></html>


Reduced Snow and Ice Cover

Reduced Snow and Ice Cover

While winter precipitation is expected to increase, warming winter temperatures above 32-degrees F, can cause precipitation to fall as freezing rain rather than snow.  What is the potential impact of these changes on sugar maple and paper birch?

CLUE:

 

Longer periods of warmer winter weather, either due to early spring warm-up or warmer late falls, would mean less snow cover. Winter temperatures are expected to warm causing more precipitation to fall as rain. Maple trees rely on snowpack during this time to protect their roots from freezing. Sugar maple needs nights below freezing to produce good sap flow. Paper birch thrives in cool to cold habitats.


Increased Storm Events

Increased Storm Events

Compare the change in 2-inch rainfall events recorded in Wisconsin from 1991-2020 to what is projected by mid-century.  By the mid-21st century, Wisconsin is projected to see a 30% increase in 2 inch extreme rainfall flooding events per decade. What is the potential impact of these changes on sugar maple and paper birch?

CLUE:

 

Trees like sugar maples are less flexible and tend to be affected more by storm and wind damage because their limbs are more susceptible to breakage than more flexible species like birches and pines. In a forest, the loss of trees due to storm damage can open the canopy area and allow more in sunlight. This can provide openings for sun loving species such as paper birch to get established.

Ice storms are expected to increase due to more winter precipitation falling as rain, rather than snow due to warming winter temperatures. Paper birch has low to average resistance to its crown being damaged by ice storms, while sugar maple has average to strong resistance to ice-caused crown damage.


Drought

Drought

By the 2060, the frequency of very hot 90-degree days in Wisconsin is expected to triple from from a statewide average of 9 to 26 days per year   What is the potential impact of these changes on sugar maple and paper birch?

CLUE:

 

Increases in the length and severity of very hot temperatures can mean drought conditions that can affect the sustainability of tree species and increase risk for wildfire. Drought is closely linked to temperature and rainfall amounts. While northern Wisconsin is expected to have more heavy rainfall events, little change in the total amount of summer rain is predicted, but temperatures will be much warmer. Climate models suggest more frequent, localized periods of extreme drought which will dry up forest soils. Trees on dry sites, such as paper birch, could decline or become extinct in Wisconsin. As susceptible trees die, greater amounts of deadwood will increase the chances of forest fires.


Activity Guide

Develop Your Hypothesis!

Download the pdf Activity Guide or use the Activity Guide below.

 

Now that you’ve investigated this unit's Ojibwe Traditional Ecological Knowledge, place-based evidence, and Scientific Ecological Knowledge of climate trends affecting sugar maple and paper birch--what do you think?

 

Do culture and science agree that climate change is affecting sugar maple, paper birch and other trees species now?


Write down your hypothesis:  

If climate change is occurring, then how might it affect sugar maple and paper birch?
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Do the Research: How Has Wisconsin’s Climate Changed?

Establish a “baseline” for your climate investigations. Open the Historic Trends and Future Projections Climate Change Maps using this link or from the website's Toolkit. Focus on maps showing "historic" climate trends. These are observed changes based that have already occurred and are recorded.

List four changes in Wisconsin’s climate from 1950-2024 that have already been recorded based on "historic" trends:

1.

2.

3.

4.

Do the Research: What's the Future?

Do the Research:  What's the Future?

Now open the Statistical Downscaling Tool. The tool allows you to investigate how these environmental climate variables could change under different climate change futures. You can chose between three future scenarios. The A1B Scenario is similar to the RCP 4.5 scenario. It is a future where the use of fossil fuels and carbon emissions stays at about the same levels as today. The A1 scenario is a future with greater carbon emissions and more warming. The B1 scenario is a future with lower carbon emissions.

 

Analyze potential climate change impacts under each of these scenarios on the environmental variables that are critical to the sustainability of sugar maple and paper birch.


1. How are each of these environmental variables projected to change climate change under each the climate future scenarios?

  • Temperature (average and seasonal)
  • Precipitation


2. Which climate change scenario offers the best opportunity for sustaining these tree species and why?

 

3. What scenario suggests for the greatest threats for the sustainability of these tree species, and why?


 

 

 

 

Test Your Hypothesis and Gather More Information

Develop an experiment or investigation of your own to test your hypothesis. Consider what other factors or variables could be causing the results you are observing.

Here are some ideas of investigations you can conduct to test your hypothesis:

 

  • Investigate Climate Change with the Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission. This website contains highlights Ojibwe Traditional Ecological Knowledge of climate change. Open the Aanji-bimaadisiimagak o'ow aki (The World is Changing) booklet to investigate the vulnerability of paper birch (page 89) and sugar maple (page 83) based on Ojibwe Traditional Ecological Knowledge. 
  • Explore the Climate Change Tree Atlas. Examine current distributions and modeled future-climate habitats for different tree species. Select a tree species to open a species page where you can manipulate a number of variables to see impacts of different climate change scenarios.
  • What growing zone do you live in? Explore this story map to discover how growing zones have shifted in Wisconsin and the United States since 1990. Navigate to the "Plant Hardiness Zone" slider map. What do these trends suggest for the sustainability of sugar maple and paper birch? What do these shifts in growing zones mean for the sustainability of other tree species or production of agricultural crops?
  • Where Will Your Climate in 60 Years?  Zoom in on this mapping tool and select a community near you to see what it may be like in 60 years.  Consider whether or not the habitat will be suitable for sugar maple and paper birch in the future? How could this affect culture and economies?

Does your research support your hypothesis?

Will current or future climate change impact the sustainability of sugar maple and paper birch?

List three pieces of evidence you’ve gathered that supports (or does not support) your hypothesis:
1.

2.

3.

If your research did not support your hypothesis, create a new hypothesis based on your observations and re-test it.

What is Your Conclusion?

What do these climate changes suggest for the sustainability of Wisconsin’s forests, especially tree species like sugar maple and paper birch?

How could these changes affect Ojibwe cultural practice of maple sugaring and birch bark harvesting?

 

How could these changes affect business and industries, like logging, that our communities depend on?

How could these same climate change trends affect your lifestyle and cultural practices you enjoy such as making or eating maple syrup, other recreational activities, hobbies, foods, or customs?